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Rules for Betting on NFL Games
Fundamental Rules of NFL Betting
1. Only make bets on a superior team beating an inferior team: Patriots (superior) vs. Dolphins (inferior)
2. Never bet on games have an average team vs. an inferior team: Redskins vs. Dolphins. They are too risky.
3. Do not bet on games over .20x, unless it is the beginning of the season and the odds are up on an inferior team, because it won some games it should have not.
4. The money-line percentage has to be between .05x and .20x for a safe bet.
5. If there are no games in a given week that have a superior team vs. an inferior team, do not bet. Be patient and wait for next week.
6. Remember that it is very difficult to win, and if you win, do not let your confidence overtake you by continuing to bet on games in a given week.
7. If you win one game, and you think that you might win another games because you just won one, then do not bet.
8. Do not make atypical bets just because you are low on money and you are trying to regain those lost monies. If you bet smart (inferior vs. superior), you should win nine out of ten times.
9. Do not be careless with money. It takes weeks to regain money in a lost bet. If you lose €100, if takes about 15 weeks to regain that money on .05x bets
10. Do not bet on a team starting a new or rookie quarterback. You do no not know how good he is. I lost betting against the Bills’ Trent Edwards in 2007 in his first rookie start against the Jets (above-average team last year). The Bills were an unknown team the year I made the bet, and I bet by by being optimistic.
11. If you are optimistic, then you are guessing and hope. Guessing and hoping is careless and unsafe. Do not bet if you are guessing or hoping.
12. Do not bet on a team that was superior last year, but had changes in the coaching staff and roster. The Chargers were a Superbowl favorite in the offseason of 2007. I bet about €620 on the Chargers in my first bet because they were playing against the Packers, who were bad last year, but were an up and coming team in the last half of the 2006 season. Do not let last year’s history be a guide for this year. Life is short in the NFL. Look only at this season’s games to see if a team is good or bad.
13. If you have to think and calculate a game out too much, then the game is too risky. Only bet on obvious and surefire games. There is parity in the NFL. Any team can beat any team in the NFL. The odds are just in favor of a superior team beating an inferior team.
14. The bottom line of gambling is to make a cool profit, which is less than .2x usually. Do not try to make great amounts of money off of high-risk bets, as in above .4x. You will be most likely in the hole trying to get yourself with other high-risk bets.
Superior – Teams with over 12 wins a year – Colts and Patriots
Average – Teams with about 7 wins a year – Redskins and Texans
Inferior – Teams with less than 3 wins a year – Dolphins and Raiders
Checklist before making a bet (all questions must be clear and positive):
1. Is one team superior and one team inferior?
2. Do all of the predictions for the game favor the superior team?
3. Is the bet under .20x?
Things to Consider Before Making a Bet
For each yes, you should reconsider making the bet. If there are too many yeses, then do not bet.
1. Is the game a division rival? Rivalry games have added emotions. There are too many intangibles in these games to make a safe bet
2. Is there anything out of the ordinary that happened to the team recently? A death, a key injury, forced relocation. A team might fall apart after a tragic event. In the 2004 season, the Saints had a 8-8 record. They were a pretty good team. Then, out of the blue they fell apart in 2005 because of Hurricane Katrina. Avoid teams under new circumstances.
3. Are the teams in your match staritng new winning or losing trends? If they are, the match’s fundamentals are changing too much. You do not want inconsistent teams to bet on. Bet on consistent teams only.
4. Is the game at the end of the season? Teams that have their playoff spot locked usually rest their starters.
11/29/2007, 1:54 pm
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